Decline in agricultural production   Leave a comment

In Kenya, food consumption is outpacing food production. According to a new Institute for Security Studies report, annual agricultural production will need to increase by an estimated 75% from 2015 levels in order to meet consumption in 2030.

Kenya’s agricultural sector, the eighth largest in Africa by volume, has struggled to keep pace with consumption since the late 1990s. However, the difference between food supply and demand remained less than two metric tons until 2009

And according to the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system housed at the Frederick S Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver, the gap between consumption and production is projected to widen going forward. IFs forecasts that agricultural consumption in Kenya will exceed production by nearly 20 million metric tons by 2040. This means that imports would have to meet roughly 25% of agricultural demand.

Low productivity in the agricultural sector and rapid population growth are two key dynamics responsible for this growing divergence. Figure 2 shows that Kenya has a lower average yield than other lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries. While Kenya’s average yield is forecast to moderately improve over the coming decades, it will probably remain comparatively low.

Meanwhile, its population of over 50 million people is growing faster than those of other lower-middle-income countries and upper-middle-income countries. By 2030, Kenya’s population is projected to rise by 15 million people – a roughly 30% increase.

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Posted June 23, 2018 by KIVIWOSHEG in Uncategorized

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